Market calendar

A higher yen policy rate lifts Japanese bond yields and pressures the global carry trade.

A higher yen policy rate lifts Japanese bond yields and pressures the global carry trade.

Commercial crude stocks fell to 423.4M bbl, 1% above the five-year average; WTI settled the week at $101.27.

Factories beat but shoppers and builders did not - a strong-supply, weak-demand split that caps commodity demand.

Commercial crude stocks slipped to 424.1M bbl, in line with the five-year average — a read on US oil demand.

Factory-gate inflation beat at 3.8% on commodity costs and tech demand; core CPI edged up to 1%.

Auto exports rose 43% and semiconductor exports 129.8% — a read on global goods demand ahead of the holiday season.

The group paused its monthly hikes while it reviews member capacity to set 2027 baselines — a supply signal for crude prices.

Beat the 50.6 consensus; services hiring rose for a fourth month, the longest run since 2023.

Week to Aug 28: stocks fell to 424.5M bbl, about 1% above the 5-year average.

Private-survey counterpart to the official PMI — skews to smaller exporters.

China's factory gauge stayed below 50, the line between expansion and contraction; non-manufacturing was 49.0.

Crude stocks 428.9M barrels, about 1% above the five-year average; gasoline drew 2.5M.

China's benchmark lending rate sets mortgage and corporate loan pricing; no cut since May 2025.

A second straight build, but far smaller than last week's 17.4M surge. Rising stocks weigh on crude prices.

Tracks US oil supply/demand balance — a driver of crude prices.

US commercial crude stocks rose ~3.0M bbl (vs a ~1.9M draw expected) — a bearish surprise on softer demand.

Private-survey read (now RatingDog-branded) on China's smaller exporters — stayed in expansion at 50.9 even as the official NBS PMI fell to 49.2.

Both back below 50: factory PMI 49.2 (lowest since Feb, ends a 4-month expansion) and non-manufacturing 49.0 (sharpest drop in 3+ years) — a bellwether for global demand and commodities.

BoJ held its policy rate at 1.00% (8-1 vote; Takata dissented for a 25bp hike) and signalled readiness to hike further. BoJ policy shifts ripple through the yen and global carry trades.

Week to Jul 24: stocks 404.5M bbl, ~7% below the 5-yr average — a draw after last week's +2.0M build. Moves crude prices and energy stocks.

Crude stocks rose for the week to Jul 17, reversing the prior week's draw.

Crude stocks fell 1.7M bbl to 409.7M (~6% below the 5-yr average), swinging back to a draw after last week's build — supportive for oil prices.

First build after 10 straight weekly draws — a swing factor for crude prices.

Weekly US crude stockpile change — moves oil prices and energy stocks.

Weekly US oil stockpiles — swings crude prices and energy stocks.