Market calendar

Factory output fell 0.3% and capacity utilisation held at 76.3% - the goods economy stalled in August.

A second regional factory read to pair with the Empire State survey.

The fastest weekly signal on whether the US labour market is cracking.

Contract signings lead completed sales by one to two months - the earliest housing turn signal.

The fastest weekly signal on whether layoffs are picking up.

Homebuilding is one of the most rate-sensitive parts of the US economy.

Commercial crude stocks fell to 423.4M bbl, 1% above the five-year average; WTI settled the week at $101.27.

Rising import prices feed through to goods inflation a few months later.

Consumer spending rebounded sharply in August — the strongest read on US demand.

The Fed raised rates by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, saying inflation stays elevated and the action supports a timelier return to 2%.

The Fed raised rates by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, saying inflation stays elevated and the action supports a timelier return to 2%.

First regional factory gauge each month - an early read on US manufacturing demand.

Second-lowest reading since 1952; 1-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% on record September pump prices.

Strips out food and energy — the Fed watches this for the underlying trend.

Headline US inflation, year-on-year. Core CPI came in at 2.4%.

Sales fell as inventory hit a 4.9-month supply — buyers are gaining leverage as rates bite.

Weekly pulse on layoffs — the fastest-moving US labour market indicator.

The fastest weekly signal on US layoffs.

Tracks prices at the factory gate — an early warning for consumer inflation.

Quarter ended Aug 28, 2026: record revenue $6.76B, GAAP net income $1.827B, GAAP diluted EPS $4.62, FY26 revenue target raised to $26.58B-$26.63B.

Quarter ended Aug 31, 2026: total revenues $19.345B, cloud revenue $11.607B up 62%, cloud infrastructure $7.388B up 121%, GAAP net income $4.760B ($4.679B available to common after $81M preferred dividends), diluted EPS $1.56, RPO $664B.

Tracks how much households are borrowing on cards and loans — a gauge of consumer appetite and stress.

NYSE and Nasdaq shut; weekly US statistical releases shift a day later.

Held steady — a rising jobless rate is what would push the Fed to cut faster.

The single biggest read on US job creation; shapes how fast the Fed cuts or holds. Unemployment rate held at 4.1%.

Week ended Aug 29. Layoffs still historically low.

Q2 revised: productivity +1.4%, unit labour costs revised down to +1.2%; labour share 52.8%, lowest since 1947.

Wider deficits subtract from GDP and feed the tariff debate.

Services PMI 55.4, 26th month of expansion; new orders 60.9, but employment still contracting at 47.8.

July new orders for manufactured goods rose to $663.6B from $657.8B.

Quarter ended Jul 31, 2026; total revenue $1,546.8M, product revenue $1,491.9M (+37% YoY); GAAP net loss attributable to Snowflake $191.7M (-$0.55/diluted sh); RPO $9.00B (+30% YoY); FY27 product revenue guidance raised to $6,070M (+36%).

Activity rose modestly since early July, led by data-centre demand; employment up very slightly; prices up moderately in 8 of 12 districts.

An early private-sector read on hiring, two days before the official jobs report.

Quarter ended Aug 2, 2026; GAAP net income $13.088B, GAAP diluted EPS $2.68; infrastructure software revenue $8.75B; Q4 FY26 revenue guidance ~$34.8B; quarterly dividend $0.65/share.

Auto demand is a live read on US consumer spending and credit appetite.

July construction spending slipped to $2.158T from $2.168T.

August ISM Manufacturing PMI - still in expansion.

Openings per unemployed worker is the Fed's favourite gauge of labour-market slack.

Revised up from the 51.0 preliminary but still -6.3% on July; year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.0%.

Preliminary benchmark cut total non-farm employment by 79K (private -178K); economists had looked for an upward revision.

Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote: economy at full employment but inflation 'more concerning'; named PCE as his gauge and called financial conditions not restrictive.

July goods deficit widened to $119.6B from $102.0B; figure is the BOP-basis goods balance, which revises the advance print.

The fastest weekly signal on US layoffs.

Auto demand is a big-ticket read on household willingness to borrow and spend.

GAAP EPS $4.29 includes $2.43 per share from $2.61B of gains on strategic investments; FY27 revenue guidance raised to $46.1-46.4B.

Second read on Q2 growth; unrevised from the advance estimate.

Orders for long-lived goods; a lead indicator for business investment.

The inflation measure the Fed actually targets at 2%.

GAAP net income $59.69B and GAAP EPS $2.46 include $7.77B of net gains on equity securities; Q3 FY27 revenue guided to $108.0B plus or minus 2%.

Tracks homebuilding activity, a rate-sensitive part of the economy.

Gauge of housing demand at current mortgage rates.

How households feel about jobs and income — a lead indicator for spending.

Big beat: activity fastest since April 2022 as a services surge offset a 5-month low in factories; S&P says Q3 is tracking near 3% annualised vs 1.5% in Q2.

Layoffs stay historically low, though the 4-week average rose to 204,000 and continuing claims climbed to 1.80M.

Total revenues $187.94B; operating income +28.8% to $9.38B; GAAP net income attributable to Walmart $6.37B; company raised FY27 adjusted EPS outlook to $2.80-$2.87.

Target raised full-year EPS guidance to $9.90-$10.90 including the tariff refund, or $8.25-$9.25 excluding it.

Minutes show the hawkish camp is bigger than the 3 dissenters; Warsh also floated cutting to six meetings a year.

Second straight monthly gain, led by factory output; capacity utilisation edged up to 76.3%, still below its long-run average.

Net earnings $4.766B; company reaffirmed FY2026 guidance of 2.5-4.5% total sales growth and flat-to-2% comparable sales.

Starts fell 12.4% from June and 13.5% below a year ago (single-family 808K, -9.9%), but permits rose 5.0% to 1.443M - a weak build month with a healthier pipeline.

Biggest monthly drop in over a year; autos -1.8% and online -2.2% led the pullback.

Sentiment fell 7.6% and year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.3% — a caution signal for spending.

Weekly layoffs proxy — 209K, up from 200K the prior week; still historically low.

Producer (factory-gate) inflation — final demand +4.7% YoY, unchanged MoM (SA); cooling from June's 5.5%.

Headline US inflation - the number the Fed and bond markets react to first.

GAAP net income $1,178M; gross margin 17.5% (vs 9.5% a year ago); record $60B+ new orders; FY27 revenue outlook $65–72B.

The single biggest read on the US labour market; drives Fed rate expectations.

Weekly count of new unemployment filings — the fastest read on the labour market; still historically low.

Q2 ended Jun 2026; revenue $3.61B beat $3.58B est; GAAP net income $816M; diluted EPS $1.37; management raised FY guidance to at least mid-teens revenue growth.

Services PMI 54.1 — 25th straight month of expansion but below 54.5 est; Business Activity jumped to 59.1 & New Orders 57.2, yet Employment slipped to 47.4 (contraction) and Prices stayed hot at 70.3.

Trailing-12-month free cash flow topped $10B for the first time.

GAAP net income $2.64B vs $5.26B a year ago on prior-year one-time tax benefits.

Annualised pace of new-vehicle sales; a read on big-ticket consumer demand.

ADP private payrolls rose just 44K in July — weakest in 6 months, below ~70K est; all gains in services (+47K), goods -3K; annual pay +4.4%.

GAAP net income $1.50B included ~$1.06B of equity investment gains; ex-equity ~$439M.

Raised full-year guidance; reported EPS included $3.03 of acquired IPR&D charges.

Deficit narrowed $4.4B as imports fell — a small positive for Q3 GDP.

Job openings eased from 7.54M — a mild labour-demand cooling the Fed tracks.

Record revenue led by data center; Q3 revenue guide $12.7–13.3B.

GAAP net income $1.06B (55% margin); GAAP operating income $912M (47% margin).

Factory activity pulse — above 50 means expansion. Jul jumped to 55.6, highest since May 2022, well above the 54.0 forecast (Production 58.5, Employment back in expansion at 52.8).

Revenue beat on higher oil prices; profit held back by planned refinery maintenance.

Wages+benefits both +0.9% in Q2; a touch above the +0.8% consensus — a stickier read on labour-cost pressure the Fed watches.

Weekly initial claims rose to 197K from 188K but stayed historically low — no sign yet of labour-market cracking.

GAAP net income $4.39B (+19% YoY); operating margin 60.2%; gross dollar volume $2.9T; $4.9B buybacks in the quarter.

Transaction revenue fell on a ~25% QoQ drop in crypto spot volumes; posted a GAAP net loss.

Fiscal Q3 ended Jun 27, 2026; GAAP gross margin 50.1%; EPS included ~$0.11 tariff-refund benefit.

Q2 net income includes ~$53.4B pre-tax non-operating gain (mainly Anthropic stake); AWS op income $16.6B.

Fed's preferred gauge cooled — headline PCE eased to 3.7% YoY (-0.1% MoM) and core to 3.3% (+0.1% MoM), both matching forecasts; energy fell on the Iran truce. Consumer spending +0.3%. Still above the 2% target.

Real GDP grew 1.5% annualized in Q2, cooling from Q1's 2.1% and below the ~2.1% consensus — consumer spending, investment and exports rose while government spending fell.

Record net revenue and loan originations ($14.8B); added 1.1M members to 15.8M (+35% YoY); adj EBITDA $358M.

Record revenue; results include $129M gain (~$0.14 EPS) from deconsolidation of Robinhood Ventures Fund I.

Profit pressured by ~$2.4B legal charge + ~$1.18B severance (8,000 role cuts); operating margin 31%.

Held the target range at 3.50-3.75% (upper bound 3.75%) on a 9-3 vote; three dissents (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) favoured a 25bp hike as inflation stays above 2%. Chair Warsh. Sets the US policy rate — moves global bonds, the dollar and risk assets.

Fiscal Q4 ended Jun 30, 2026; net income $35.8B (+31%); FY26 revenue $331.8B.

Q2 revenue +5% to $8.68B; adjusted EPS $1.38 beat; GAAP net income $1.1B ($1.25/sh); raised full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance.

Fiscal Q3 (ended Jun 30): net revenue +14% to $11.6B, payments volume +10%, 71.7B processed transactions; non-GAAP EPS $3.32.

Gauge of US household mood — a lead read on spending and demand. Fell 1.4 pts; Present Situation 114.9 (3rd monthly drop), Expectations flat at 74.7.

Record quarterly revenue $1,065.4M; product revenue +215%; GAAP net income $196.3M; operating income $182.2M; FY26 guide raised to $3.9-4.2B.

Q2 revenue up 8% to $24.6B; loss widened on $280M VC-25B (Air Force One) charge; 171 commercial deliveries, highest since 2018.

Orders for long-lasting goods — an early read on business-investment appetite. Jun rose +0.3% MoM ($334.8B) after a volatile spring (Apr +8.5%, May -4.5% on swings in aircraft orders).

First read on July US activity — composite at an 8-month high signals resilient growth.

Weekly layoffs pulse — the fastest read on the US job market; a multi-month low.

Fastest revenue growth since 2011 on AI-driven data-center demand; the GAAP loss reflects charges while non-GAAP profit returned.

GAAP net income $1.11B (-5% YoY); operating income $398M (-57%), operating margin 1.4%; record 480,126 deliveries.

Net income up 298% to $112.1B, largely unrealized equity-securities gains; operating income $40.8B (+30%).

Factory, mining and utility output edged up in June — a gauge of the industrial economy's health.

Housing starts rebounded sharply from May's weak 1.20M; building permits, a leading gauge, eased to 1.37M (-3%).

Second straight monthly rise and highest since February on cheaper gas; 1-yr inflation expectations eased to 4.2% from 4.6%.

Weekly layoffs pulse; 208K is a multi-week low — labor market still tight.

Core gauge of US consumer spending; June +0.2% MoM, +6.7% YoY (gas-station drag; ex-gas +0.7%).

Second day of the semiannual Monetary Policy Report — followed the soft June CPI/PPI as traders parsed the rate path into the July 29 FOMC.

Wholesale inflation cooled to 5.5% YoY (-0.3% MoM SA), below the 6.2% forecast and down from 6.0% — echoing the soft June CPI and easing pressure on the Fed's PCE gauge.

Headline CPI fell to 3.5% YoY; prices dropped 0.4% on the month, the biggest 1-month fall since April 2020, as energy slid 5.7%. Core held at 2.6%.

Layoffs staying low even as hiring cools — claims steady near 215K.

NYSE & Nasdaq shut (July 4 falls on Saturday); thin global liquidity.

Weak +57K print — hiring is cooling, which feeds Fed rate-cut expectations.

Weekly US crude stock change — moves oil prices and energy stocks.

Upper bound of the fed funds target — anchors global rates and the dollar.

Key US inflation print; drives Fed policy path and US bond yields.

Headline US labour-market gauge; shapes Fed rate expectations and global risk sentiment.