Market calendar

Trailing-12-month free cash flow topped $10B for the first time.

Services PMI 54.1 — 25th straight month of expansion but below 54.5 est; Business Activity jumped to 59.1 & New Orders 57.2, yet Employment slipped to 47.4 (contraction) and Prices stayed hot at 70.3.

ADP private payrolls rose just 44K in July — weakest in 6 months, below ~70K est; all gains in services (+47K), goods -3K; annual pay +4.4%.

GAAP net income $2.64B vs $5.26B a year ago on prior-year one-time tax benefits.

GAAP net income $1.50B included ~$1.06B of equity investment gains; ex-equity ~$439M.

Raised full-year guidance; reported EPS included $3.03 of acquired IPR&D charges.

Deficit narrowed $4.4B as imports fell — a small positive for Q3 GDP.

Job openings eased from 7.54M — a mild labour-demand cooling the Fed tracks.

Record revenue led by data center; Q3 revenue guide $12.7–13.3B.

GAAP net income $1.06B (55% margin); GAAP operating income $912M (47% margin).

Factory activity pulse — above 50 means expansion. Jul jumped to 55.6, highest since May 2022, well above the 54.0 forecast (Production 58.5, Employment back in expansion at 52.8).

Revenue beat on higher oil prices; profit held back by planned refinery maintenance.

Wages+benefits both +0.9% in Q2; a touch above the +0.8% consensus — a stickier read on labour-cost pressure the Fed watches.

Transaction revenue fell on a ~25% QoQ drop in crypto spot volumes; posted a GAAP net loss.

GAAP net income $4.39B (+19% YoY); operating margin 60.2%; gross dollar volume $2.9T; $4.9B buybacks in the quarter.

Weekly initial claims rose to 197K from 188K but stayed historically low — no sign yet of labour-market cracking.

Fiscal Q3 ended Jun 27, 2026; GAAP gross margin 50.1%; EPS included ~$0.11 tariff-refund benefit.

Fed's preferred gauge cooled — headline PCE eased to 3.7% YoY (-0.1% MoM) and core to 3.3% (+0.1% MoM), both matching forecasts; energy fell on the Iran truce. Consumer spending +0.3%. Still above the 2% target.

Q2 net income includes ~$53.4B pre-tax non-operating gain (mainly Anthropic stake); AWS op income $16.6B.

Real GDP grew 1.5% annualized in Q2, cooling from Q1's 2.1% and below the ~2.1% consensus — consumer spending, investment and exports rose while government spending fell.

Record net revenue and loan originations ($14.8B); added 1.1M members to 15.8M (+35% YoY); adj EBITDA $358M.

Record revenue; results include $129M gain (~$0.14 EPS) from deconsolidation of Robinhood Ventures Fund I.

Fiscal Q4 ended Jun 30, 2026; net income $35.8B (+31%); FY26 revenue $331.8B.

Held the target range at 3.50-3.75% (upper bound 3.75%) on a 9-3 vote; three dissents (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) favoured a 25bp hike as inflation stays above 2%. Chair Warsh. Sets the US policy rate — moves global bonds, the dollar and risk assets.

Profit pressured by ~$2.4B legal charge + ~$1.18B severance (8,000 role cuts); operating margin 31%.

Fiscal Q3 (ended Jun 30): net revenue +14% to $11.6B, payments volume +10%, 71.7B processed transactions; non-GAAP EPS $3.32.

Q2 revenue +5% to $8.68B; adjusted EPS $1.38 beat; GAAP net income $1.1B ($1.25/sh); raised full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance.

Gauge of US household mood — a lead read on spending and demand. Fell 1.4 pts; Present Situation 114.9 (3rd monthly drop), Expectations flat at 74.7.

Q2 revenue up 8% to $24.6B; loss widened on $280M VC-25B (Air Force One) charge; 171 commercial deliveries, highest since 2018.

Record quarterly revenue $1,065.4M; product revenue +215%; GAAP net income $196.3M; operating income $182.2M; FY26 guide raised to $3.9-4.2B.

Orders for long-lasting goods — an early read on business-investment appetite. Jun rose +0.3% MoM ($334.8B) after a volatile spring (Apr +8.5%, May -4.5% on swings in aircraft orders).

First read on July US activity — composite at an 8-month high signals resilient growth.

Weekly layoffs pulse — the fastest read on the US job market; a multi-month low.

Fastest revenue growth since 2011 on AI-driven data-center demand; the GAAP loss reflects charges while non-GAAP profit returned.

Net income up 298% to $112.1B, largely unrealized equity-securities gains; operating income $40.8B (+30%).

GAAP net income $1.11B (-5% YoY); operating income $398M (-57%), operating margin 1.4%; record 480,126 deliveries.

Housing starts rebounded sharply from May's weak 1.20M; building permits, a leading gauge, eased to 1.37M (-3%).

Factory, mining and utility output edged up in June — a gauge of the industrial economy's health.

Second straight monthly rise and highest since February on cheaper gas; 1-yr inflation expectations eased to 4.2% from 4.6%.

Weekly layoffs pulse; 208K is a multi-week low — labor market still tight.

Core gauge of US consumer spending; June +0.2% MoM, +6.7% YoY (gas-station drag; ex-gas +0.7%).

Wholesale inflation cooled to 5.5% YoY (-0.3% MoM SA), below the 6.2% forecast and down from 6.0% — echoing the soft June CPI and easing pressure on the Fed's PCE gauge.

Second day of the semiannual Monetary Policy Report — followed the soft June CPI/PPI as traders parsed the rate path into the July 29 FOMC.

Headline CPI fell to 3.5% YoY; prices dropped 0.4% on the month, the biggest 1-month fall since April 2020, as energy slid 5.7%. Core held at 2.6%.

Layoffs staying low even as hiring cools — claims steady near 215K.

NYSE & Nasdaq shut (July 4 falls on Saturday); thin global liquidity.

Weak +57K print — hiring is cooling, which feeds Fed rate-cut expectations.

Weekly US crude stock change — moves oil prices and energy stocks.

Upper bound of the fed funds target — anchors global rates and the dollar.

Key US inflation print; drives Fed policy path and US bond yields.

Headline US labour-market gauge; shapes Fed rate expectations and global risk sentiment.