US futures are split early Thursday: the Dow edges up while the Nasdaq lags for a second day as the AI/chip trade cools after TSMC's record quarterly profit failed to impress, and a fresh US escalation against Iran keeps oil bid ahead of the June retail sales report.

Futures now

Per Yahoo Finance, Dow futures were up about +0.2% (~53,011), S&P 500 futures roughly flat at -0.2% (~7,599) and Nasdaq-100 futures down -0.7% (~29,489). Small-caps (Russell 2000) fell ~0.4% and the VIX ticked up ~2% to ~16. The single biggest overnight driver is a second-day pullback in semiconductors layered over renewed Middle East risk.

Pre-market movers

• TSMC (TSM) slipped pre-market despite a record Q2 profit and a lifted capex/investment plan — a cautious tone on pricing dented the AI-demand read, per Benzinga. Chip and memory peers (Nvidia, AMD, SanDisk) stayed soft for a second session.
• Apple (AAPL) hit a record high on Wednesday, helping cushion the Dow.
• UnitedHealth (UNH) and GE Aerospace (GE) report before the bell; Netflix (NFLX) headlines after the close, with options implying a ~±8% swing.

Earnings today

Before the open: TSMC (reported), UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace. After the close: Netflix — the first Big-Tech-adjacent read of the season. Bank and industrial earnings continue to ramp through the week.

Macro today (ET)

• 8:30 — Retail sales (June): consensus +0.2% m/m vs +0.9% prior; ex-autos -0.1% vs +0.8%. A soft print would stoke hard-landing worries; in-line would reinforce hopes for autumn Fed cuts.
• 8:30 — Initial jobless claims: consensus ~216k vs 215k prior — a labor-market pulse check.
• 8:30 — Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (July): consensus ~13 vs 10.3 prior; a beat signals firmer factory activity.
• 10:00 — Business inventories (May) +0.3% expected; NAHB homebuilder index (July) seen steady at 35.
• 10:30 — EIA natural gas storage.
• Fed speakers: Lorie Logan (~12:30pm) and Jeffrey Schmid (~1:25pm). No CPI/PCE or FOMC today — CPI landed earlier this week.

Rates, dollar & commodities

The US 10-year yield sat near 4.57% (down ~6bp Wednesday from a two-month high ~4.62%), easing borrowing-cost pressure. The dollar index (DXY) was ~100.7, off ~0.4%. Brent traded ~$84.6/bbl and WTI ~$79.5 — cooling after an early rally but still near a one-month high on Strait of Hormuz risk. Gold held above $4,000 at ~$4,034 (Yahoo/Trading Economics).

Overnight global

Asia was mixed-to-soft on the chip drag and Europe traded lower. In the UK, May GDP came in at +0.1% m/m (in line) with stronger manufacturing, nudging the pound higher — a mild risk-neutral backdrop for the US open.

What to watch at the open

The 8:30 retail sales print is the swing factor: a weak consumer read would test the soft-landing narrative, while an in-line number keeps rate-cut hopes intact. Watch whether chip weakness broadens or whether the Dow and value names keep the indices afloat, and track oil/Hormuz headlines for risk appetite. Netflix after the close then sets the early tone for tech earnings.

As of 9:10 AM ET. Sources: Yahoo Finance, XTB, Benzinga, Trading Economics, Investing.com. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.