It is Fed decision day, and for the first time in this cycle the debate is about a hike, not a cut. US futures are nudging higher into the open, but the whole session hangs on the 2:00 PM ET FOMC verdict — with markets pricing a roughly 92% chance of the first US rate increase since 2023.

Futures now

Per CNBC, S&P 500 futures are up about 0.2%, Nasdaq-100 futures about 0.4%, and Dow futures up around 77 points (0.2%). It is a cautious, wait-for-the-Fed bid after two down days: Tuesday closed with the Dow off 0.6% at 52,092, the S&P 500 down 0.5% at 7,585, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.8% at 25,981 (Kiplinger).

The main event — FOMC at 2:00 PM ET

CME FedWatch shows about a 92.5% probability of a 25bp hike to a 3.75%–4.00% target range — which would be the first Fed hike since July 2023 (CNBC). Sticky energy-driven inflation and a hotter-than-expected August CPI have flipped the script from rate cuts. Watch three things beyond the decision itself: the updated Summary of Economic Projections and "dot plot," Chair Warsh's 2:30 PM press conference, and any dissents. Markets also price ~45% odds of a further hike in October and ~30% in December, so the forward path matters more than today's move.

Pre-market movers & earnings

Chip and AI names have been the pressure point this week, with Nvidia, AMD and Intel all sliding roughly 5% on Monday amid "AI-too-far-too-fast" worries — worth watching for a bounce or continuation. On the calendar: Lennar (LEN) reports, a useful read on the rate-sensitive housing consumer, and Salesforce's Dreamforce features a Sam Altman–Marc Benioff discussion that could move AI sentiment.

Macro today — a full slate

• Retail Sales (Aug), 8:30 AM ET — consensus about +0.8% m/m vs -0.6% prior; a beat argues the consumer is resilient enough to absorb a hike (Investing.com).
• Import & Export Prices (Aug), 8:30 AM ET — a second-tier inflation tell as tariff and energy pass-through stay in focus.
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep), 10:00 AM ET — seen near 34 vs 35 prior; homebuilder mood with mortgage rates elevated.
• Business Inventories (Jul), 10:00 AM ET.
• EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, 10:30 AM ET — extra weight given the oil spike.

Rates, dollar & commodities

The bond market is the story behind the Fed: the US 10-year yield touched 5.04% on Tuesday, its highest since 2007, sitting near 4.99%, with the 2-year around 4.65% and the 30-year near 5.35% (Kiplinger). The dollar index (DXY) is around 99.7. WTI crude is near $104.7 (down ~1%) and Brent around $107.5 after a ~20% month-to-date surge tied to the Iran conflict; gold has climbed back above $4,300 to roughly $4,338 (Trading Economics).

Overnight global context

Elevated yields and firm oil have kept global risk appetite in check, and the Bank of Japan is also in the spotlight this week with its own tightening in view — a rare backdrop of two major central banks leaning hawkish at once, which keeps a bid under the dollar and pressure on long bonds.

What to watch at the open

Expect a quiet, coiled tape until 2:00 PM — position-squaring more than conviction. The retail sales print at 8:30 is the first swing factor; a strong number hardens the hike case and could nudge yields higher still. The real volatility is reserved for the decision, the dot plot and Warsh's tone: a hike is largely priced, so the market's move will be dictated by whether the Fed signals more to come or hints this is near the end.

As of 7:12 AM ET, Wed Sep 16, 2026. Sources: CNBC, Kiplinger, Investing.com, Trading Economics. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.