US futures pointed modestly lower into the open after American strikes on Iranian missile launchers in the Strait of Hormuz sent crude sharply higher — a classic risk-off mix of costlier energy and rising rate-hike odds, arriving on the last session of a month Wall Street still finishes in the green.

Futures into the open

• Dow futures 53,455, -129 pts (-0.24%)
• S&P 500 futures 7,703.50, -18.50 (-0.24%)
• Nasdaq-100 futures 29,433.25, -58.50 (-0.20%)
• VIX 15.28 (+5.9%) — hedging demand up, but nowhere near panic

Figures as reported by Yahoo Finance at 7:42 AM ET. Despite today's dip, August is a winning month: Dow +2.1%, S&P 500 +3%, Nasdaq +4.1%, per Barron's.

The driver: Hormuz

US forces struck two missile launchers on Iran's Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday — the first such strike in about a month — with Tehran claiming counterattacks on US air bases in Jordan (Reuters, Trading Economics). Roughly 6-8 million barrels a day still transit the strait, so this is a risk premium, not a supply outage.

Movers to watch

• Apple — today is Tim Cook's final day as CEO after 15 years; John Ternus takes over tomorrow, weeks before the fall product event (Yahoo Finance).
• Microsoft, Alphabet and Tesla were each down about 1% in premarket, with JPMorgan and Visa off around 0.7%, as reported by Trading Economics.
• Energy is the bid side: European majors TotalEnergies, OMV and Orlen rose 1.8-3.8% tracking crude (Reuters).

Earnings & calendar

No notable US earnings today. The week's marquee names arrive later: Palo Alto Networks and Dell (Tue), Broadcom and Snowflake (Wed) and Lululemon (Thu) — the AI-capex read-through investors care most about.

Macro today: a light data day

A genuinely light data day. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) at 10:30 AM ET is the only release — prior 0.7, Trading Economics forecast 1.3. A stronger print supports the "activity is fine, so the Fed can hike" camp; a slip back below zero would be the first crack. Also on the tape: 3-month and 6-month bill auctions (11:30 AM ET). No CPI, PCE, PPI, ISM, claims, JOLTS, ADP, retail sales, housing or GDP today, and no scheduled Fed speakers. The heavy lifting starts tomorrow with JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing, then ADP (Wed), ISM Services (Thu) and August payrolls Friday — the last jobs report before the September FOMC, with economists near 50,000 jobs added.

Rates, dollar & commodities

• US 10Y yield 4.724%, up marginally (Trading Economics)
• DXY 99.53, -0.17% after a three-session rally (Trading Economics)
• Brent $90.78, +3.04%; WTI $86.63, +3.9% (Trading Economics / Yahoo Finance)
• Gold futures $4,504.60, -0.56%, still up almost 10% in August (Yahoo Finance / Trading Economics)

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole message — that inflation "isn't meaningfully slowing" — has pushed September hike odds to roughly 57-62%, from about 40% a week ago (Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance). Goldman's Jan Hatzius still expects a hold.

Overnight global

Asia finished mixed and calm: Nikkei 225 -0.14% at 66,311.93, Shanghai Composite +0.86%, Hang Seng -0.07%. Europe is slightly softer with the STOXX 600 -0.1% at 655.54 and the DAX -0.7%, energy names offsetting the drag (Armenpress, Reuters).

What to watch at the open

Watch whether crude holds its gains through the session — a Brent close above $90 keeps the energy-vs-everything-else rotation alive and complicates the disinflation story the Fed says it needs. Watch the 10-year: yields grinding higher alongside oil is what pressures long-duration tech hardest. And note month-end flows, which can distort the last hour and make today a poor guide to September.

As of 9:39 AM ET, 31 August 2026. Sources: Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Barron's, Armenpress, Trading Economics calendar. All prices and index levels are as reported by these news sources, not real-time exchange data. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.