US futures are clinging to the flat line an hour before the open as a sharp jump in oil — and the rate-HIKE bets it is feeding — overshadows a quiet data day. Brent is knocking on $100 for the first time in over a month after the US struck five Iranian oil tankers, keeping the Strait of Hormuz front and center.

Futures now

• Dow (YM): slightly below flat after Tuesday's 600-point rout.
• S&P 500 (ES): hugging the flat line.
• Nasdaq-100 (NQ): +0.2%, the lone bright spot as chip names firm up.

Context: on Tuesday the Dow fell 627 pts (-1.17%) to 52,788, the S&P lost 0.6% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.3% — higher energy prices and hike fears the culprit (CNBC, Yahoo Finance).

Pre-market movers

• Chips catch a bid: Intel (+9%) and AMD (+5.9%) were among the most-active trending tickers into the session (Yahoo Finance).
• Shopify -7.8% — a notable laggard among trending names.
• Apple (AAPL): in focus as it hosts its annual iPhone launch event today — new CEO John Ternus's first time on stage.

Earnings today

Chewy (CHWY) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) report quarterly numbers — both read-throughs on how the US consumer is holding up as energy costs bite (Yahoo Finance).

Macro today — light data day

No top-tier release; the market's fuel is oil and Fed positioning. On the second-tier calendar (Trading Economics, Investing.com): MBA mortgage applications (prior 30Y rate ~6.79%), the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (~11:00 ET — watched given the oil spike), a 10-Year Note auction (~13:00 ET; prior 4.683% — demand matters with yields near 3-year highs), and API weekly crude stocks after the close (prior -2.6M). The big ones land later this week: PPI Thursday, CPI Friday — both into next week's Fed meeting.

Rates, dollar & commodities

• US 10Y yield: ~4.77%, near 3-year highs after topping 4.8% Tuesday (Trading Economics).
• Crude: Brent ~$99, WTI ~$94 (+1.6%) on the tanker strikes (Yahoo Finance).
• Gold: ~$4,368/oz, off 0.8% as real yields press higher (Trading Economics).

Overnight global context

The energy shock and rate-hike repricing are the global thread. Canada's TSX opened its Tuesday session down ~1.1%, echoing Wall Street's risk-off tone, with energy shares the one pocket of strength as crude climbed.

What to watch at the open

Watch whether Brent actually tags $100 — a clean break would harden the market's ~60% odds of a 25bp Fed hike on Sep 15-16 and pressure rate-sensitive tech. Watch the 10Y auction for whether buyers show up near 4.8%. And watch Apple's event and the Chewy/AEO prints for any signal on the consumer.

As of 04:45 ET. Sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Trading Economics, Investing.com / Trading Economics calendar. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.