US futures are hugging the flatline the morning after the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record above 7,800, but the big pre-open surprise is a sharp miss in July retail sales — the biggest monthly drop in over a year — which is now the swing factor for how the cash session opens.

Futures now

As reported by FXStreet during European hours: Dow futures ~53,910 (-0.1%), S&P 500 futures ~7,820 (flat) and Nasdaq-100 futures ~30,160 (little changed). The tone stayed cautious into the 8:30 data after cooler CPI and PPI prints earlier this week eased fears of another Fed rate hike.

The data that just dropped — retail sales miss

The Census Bureau's advance July retail sales fell -0.6% MoM (Reuters/Bloomberg), versus consensus of roughly +0.2% to +0.3% and a +0.2% prior — the steepest decline in more than a year. Excluding autos and gas, sales dipped -0.2%. Year-over-year, sales are still up ~5.0%. Economists tie the pullback to exhausted tax refunds that had propped up Q2 spending. A miss like this pushes back rate-hike odds but also raises soft-consumer worries — watch which narrative wins.

Pre-market movers

• Reddit (RDDT) +12.9% — set to join the S&P 500 on Aug 18; index-inclusion buying.
• SanDisk (SNDK) +7% — bullish 2026 Investor Day outlook; JPMorgan started at overweight.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) -4.9% — beat on Q3 revenue/EPS and guided Q4 well above estimates, but fell on unrealized investment losses.
• Globant (GLOB) -12.6% — weak Q2 results and a cut to its full-year revenue forecast.

Macro & Fed today

After retail sales, the calendar brings University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment for August at 10:00 ET (consensus ~54.1 vs 55.2 prior; 1-year inflation expectations seen ~4.2%) and June business inventories (prior +0.3%). Import/export prices and industrial production are next week (Aug 18), not today. Per CME FedWatch, odds of a September Fed hike have slipped to ~32% from ~40% after this week's softer inflation data.

Rates, dollar & commodities

As reported by Investing.com/Trading Economics: US 10-year yield ~4.65%, dollar index (DXY) ~99.8 (-0.1%), gold ~$4,450/oz, WTI ~$81 and Brent ~$87 a barrel. Softer oil has been part of this week's risk-on backdrop.

Overnight global context

Asia was firm — South Korea's KOSPI jumped over 2.4% — lending a positive risk tone; European bourses were muted in early trade.

What to watch at the open

First, the reflex to the retail-sales miss: does it reinforce the "Fed on hold" trade (supportive for stocks) or spark growth jitters? Second, the 10:00 ET Michigan sentiment print, especially the inflation-expectations component. Third, whether Reddit's index-inclusion pop and the chip-sector reaction to Applied Materials set the day's leadership.

As of 09:10 ET, Fri Aug 14, 2026. Sources: Yahoo Finance, FXStreet, Bloomberg, Globe & Mail, CNBC, Investing.com. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.