US futures are treading water an hour before the open as a hardening US–Iran standoff keeps oil bid and pushes Wednesday's CPI report to the center of the table. After Monday's lower close, S&P 500 futures sat roughly flat, Dow futures dipped and Nasdaq-100 futures edged higher, per Yahoo Finance.

Futures now

• S&P 500 futures ~7,783 (+0.08%) · Dow ~54,036 (−0.05%) · Nasdaq-100 ~29,807 (+0.23%); Russell 2000 +0.06%, VIX ~15.5 (Yahoo Finance).

The single biggest overnight driver is crude. President Trump rebuffed Iran's demand for war reparations and said he would let economic pressure build, while Iran's foreign minister said there is “no possibility” of restarting talks until the US compensates it — dimming hopes for a Strait of Hormuz reopening and keeping oil bid (Yahoo Finance).

Pre-market movers & earnings

The spotlight is on AI hardware after the close. Super Micro (SMCI) rose ~4% Monday to ~$32.48 into its fiscal-Q4 report, having preannounced gross margins of 15–17% (nearly double prior guidance) and a record backlog above $60B; the Street is near $0.68 EPS on ~$11B revenue (Market Rebellion, 24/7 Wall St). CoreWeave (CRWV) also reports after the bell — analysts model a loss of ~$1.27/share on ~$2.56B revenue, with options implying a ~16% move (Investing.com). Cardinal Health is also on the docket. Peers HPE (+4%) and Dell (+3%) firmed Monday, while Nvidia slipped as fresh Intel/Nvidia fundraising renewed scrutiny of AI capex (Yahoo Finance).

Macro today

A relatively light data day ahead of tomorrow's inflation print. NFIB Small Business Optimism (July) rose 2.4 points to 99.8 — the highest since August 2025 and above the 52-year average of 98.0, with hiring plans leading the gain (NFIB). A 10-year Treasury note auction lands at 1:00 PM ET; watch demand with yields near a one-month high. Weekly Redbook retail sales also print. The main event is Wednesday's CPI: a hot number would harden September rate-hike bets, which Cleveland Fed's Hammack kept alive Monday by warning it may take more than one hike to cool inflation (Yahoo Finance).

Rates, dollar & commodities

• US 10Y yield ~4.66%, near a one-month high (Investing.com); DXY ~99.6 (+0.2%, Barchart).
• WTI ~$79.6 (+1.8%) · Brent ~$85.0 (+1.7%) (Investing.com); Gold ~$4,440/oz, near record (Yahoo Finance).

Global backdrop

Europe hovered just below record highs, with the Stoxx 600, DAX, CAC and FTSE 100 little changed as defense names (BAE, Rheinmetall) stayed strong and higher oil lifted energy majors like Shell (Yahoo Finance/ADVFN). Asian markets were mixed overnight, with energy exposure underpinned by the crude rally.

What to watch at the open

Watch whether oil's climb pushes the 10-year yield higher and pressures rate-sensitive megacaps into CPI eve. AI-server sentiment could swing on the SMCI and CoreWeave setups even before their after-close prints. And any fresh US–Iran headline on Hormuz stays the wildcard for crude and risk appetite.

As of 9:15 AM ET. Sources: Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, Barchart, Market Rebellion, NFIB. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.