US stocks are set for a tense open as the Federal Reserve's 2:00 PM ET rate decision collides with a fresh Iran-driven spike in oil — while a brutal chip selloff in Asia threatens to drag tech at the bell. Futures are steady; the real fireworks come at 2 PM.

Futures now

Per Yahoo Finance's pre-market read, S&P 500 futures were up about 0.2% (near 7,482), Dow futures hovered just above the flat line, and Nasdaq-100 futures sat roughly flat after Asian investors again dumped chip names. Russell 2000 futures added ~0.25% and the VIX held around 18.2. The single biggest overnight driver: Iran's "attempted surprise attack" on US forces (reported by US Central Command), which reengaged Middle East hostilities and pushed Brent crude up more than 3%.

Overnight global context

Asia was ugly for chips. South Korea's KOSPI slumped about 6% after SK Hynix's Q2 profit jumped 557% year-on-year but still fell short of Wall Street hopes, reigniting fears the AI boom is cooling. Tokyo Electron fell ~10.6% and Lasertec ~8.3%; the Nikkei lost ~1.5% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng bucked the trend, +1.8%. Europe opened firmer — FTSE 100 +0.6%, CAC 40 +0.4%, DAX +0.3%, led by energy and miners (per Yahoo Finance/Reuters).

Pre-market movers & earnings

The chip complex is under pressure into the open, with SK Hynix's US listing down ~9% and Seagate off ~8.5% on the Asia read-through; Bloom Energy slid ~11% and Lucid surged ~22% among Yahoo Finance's trending tickers. The marquee events land after the close: Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) — a make-or-break AI-capex test after Alphabet's spending guidance rattled markets last week. Qualcomm, Arm Holdings, Lam Research, Starbucks and Chipotle also report after the bell; Procter & Gamble, Aon, General Dynamics and Vertiv are among the morning names.

Macro today

A light data slate, overshadowed by the Fed. 8:30 AM ET brings the Advance Goods Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories (June); 10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales (June), consensus +1.1% m/m vs −2.1% prior. The main event is the 2:00 PM ET FOMC decision — consensus is a fifth straight hold at 3.50%–3.75%, but roughly a third of traders price a hike to 3.75%–4.00%, which would be the first increase in three years. Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference follows at 2:30 PM, with markets braced for less forward guidance than under Powell. A hike, or a hawkish Warsh, would mean higher yields and a firmer dollar and pressure on rate-sensitive tech.

Rates, dollar & commodities

The US 10-year yield sat near 4.62% — around its highest since January 2025 as rising oil rekindles inflation worries — while the dollar index (DXY) hovered near 101.3, just off a 15-month high. WTI traded around $82 and Brent near $85–87; gold was roughly flat near $4,097 (per Trading Economics/Yahoo Finance).

What to watch at the open

Watch whether Asia's chip weakness bleeds into Nvidia and AMD and caps the Nasdaq, and whether crude holds its gains as Middle East headlines develop. Above all, the gap between a Fed hold and a surprise hike — plus Warsh's tone at 2:30 — is the day's biggest swing factor. Then Microsoft and Meta after the bell set the AI tape for the rest of the week.

As of 9:20 AM ET, Jul 29, 2026. Sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Trading Economics, Investing.com, Morningstar. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.