The Fed raised the federal funds target by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% this afternoon — its first hike since July 2023, on a unanimous 12–0 vote, as reported by Fox Business. Stocks went up anyway: the S&P 500 added about 0.3% and the Nasdaq about 0.7%, per Yahoo Finance's live coverage.

That's not a puzzle. Futures had the hike at 92.5% odds going in. A fully-priced move isn't news.

The news was in the dots

The new projections show 12 of 18 FOMC members at 4.125% by year-end — one more hike. Four want 50bps more. Only two see nothing further. So 16 of 18 policymakers think rates are still too low. Kiplinger also reports the Fed pushed the year PCE inflation gets back to 2% out to 2029, from 2028 — an extra full year of missing its own target.

Chair Kevin Warsh didn't soften it: "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Today, the FOMC decided that this standard has not been satisfied." He declined to pre-commit to anything after that.

Why the bond market didn't flinch

The 10-year yield fell roughly 4bps to about 4.965% (Kiplinger) — hours after it broke 5% for the first time since 2007 the same morning. The long end did its selling before the meeting, not after it.

The ripple: energy is doing the Fed's work

Warsh named high energy prices as part of the inflation problem — and energy is what actually moved today. WTI fell 3.1% to $102.55 (Kiplinger) after the US said a damaged Saudi pipeline would restart operations within days (CNBC). A shale producer's realised price falls roughly one-for-one with the benchmark while its drilling and service costs don't, so that lands straight on the margin: Diamondback Energy (FANG) fell about 8% on the session, per TheStreet.

The one thing that flips it

Those extra dots are conditional on energy staying expensive. Watch WTI at $102.55. If the Saudi restart holds and crude keeps sliding, the price impulse Warsh cited fades and the pencilled-in hike can quietly go away. If crude round-trips back above $108 — where Brent sat two sessions ago — the two-hike camp stops being a minority. Meeting dates are on the calendar; today's moves are on movers.

As of 15:15 ET / 00:45 IST, Sep 16–17, 2026. Sources: Fox Business, Yahoo Finance, Kiplinger, TheStreet. For discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.