Wall Street snapped a four-day losing streak on Friday, with all three major indices climbing at the open after August inflation landed almost exactly as forecast — but the relief comes even as traders now see a Fed rate hike next week as all but certain.

The open

At the opening bell the S&P 500 rose 0.96%, the Dow gained 1.15%, the Nasdaq added 0.88% and the Russell 2000 climbed 1.04% (TheStreet). By midday the S&P was near 7,671, up roughly half a percent on the day (24/7 Wall St.), as buyers stepped in despite rising rate-hike odds.

Macro today — CPI was the main event

• August CPI (8:30 AM ET): headline +0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, both in line with the Dow Jones consensus. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m — 0.1pp hotter than expected — with the annual core rate at 2.4%, as forecast (BLS via CNBC/TheStreet). In-line enough to relieve markets, hot enough to keep the Fed boxed in.
• UMich consumer sentiment (prelim, 10 AM ET): slumped to 47.8 vs 51.0 expected and 51.7 prior — a downbeat read. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% (Investing Live/FXStreet). A weak consumer against sticky prices is the stagflation-lite worry.

The Fed angle — a hike, not a cut

This is the unusual part: markets are pricing an ~85–90% chance of a 25bp rate HIKE at Wednesday's FOMC meeting, up from ~70% before CPI (CME FedWatch via TheStreet; Yahoo Finance). Bloomberg reports bond traders now see two hikes before year-end. "Inflation is still too hot, and the Fed's hands are tied," said Regan Capital's Skyler Weinand. A beat/miss here matters less than the trajectory — prices are drifting the wrong way with oil and war in the mix.

Pre-market & session movers

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise +11.6% — post-earnings re-rating on accelerating AI server, networking and storage demand.
• Dell +10% — RBC initiated at Outperform (free cash flow, AI-infra edge); joins the S&P 100 on Sept 21.
• HP Inc. +8% — RBC initiated at Sector Perform, $33 target.
• SpaceX +1.25% (~$150) — reportedly signed a compute deal worth ~$1.1B/month (~$13B annualized).
• Downside: Clorox −3.1% (Barclays trims target), Seagate −3.1% (profit-taking), Albemarle −2.5% (ex-dividend).

Rates, dollar & commodities

• US 10Y yield ~4.97% — highest since October 2023; the 2Y jumped ~15bp to a two-year-plus high as hike bets built (Trading Economics/Capital.com).
• Oil eased but stays elevated: WTI −3.35% to $99.05, Brent −3.61% to $103.70, as the US–Iran conflict and a Houthi seizure of Yemen's Mocha port keep a risk premium bid (TheStreet).
• Gold −0.66% to $4,404/oz; silver +0.37% to $65.17 — precious metals under pressure from the yield spike.

Overnight & geopolitics

The oil-and-war backdrop is driving everything: President Trump said he has "no regrets" about the Iran war and sees it running past the November midterms, while Treasury Secretary Bessent flagged sanctions on "a large bank" coming Monday. That's what turned a hot PPI (5.4% y/y wholesale) into surging yields on Thursday — and what keeps this rally fragile.

What to watch at the open

Watch whether buyers can hold the CPI-relief bounce into the weekend with the 10Y pinned near 5% — a yield that high has repeatedly capped equity rallies this month. Watch oil headlines out of the Red Sea, since crude is the swing factor for both inflation and rates. And watch positioning into Wednesday's Fed: with a hike near fully priced, the reaction will hinge on the dot plot and Powell's tone, not the move itself.

As of 12:17 PM ET, Sep 11, 2026. Sources: TheStreet, CNBC, BLS, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, Trading Economics, Investing Live. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.