US futures are drifting into the open with everything hinging on Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair at 10:00 ET — a speech markets want to read for whether the next move is a cut, a pause, or (as a slice of the bond market now fears) a hike.

Futures now

• Dow futures 53,731, +0.21% — per Yahoo Finance
• S&P 500 futures 7,741.50, roughly flat (-0.01%)
• Nasdaq-100 futures 29,615.75, -0.27%

Barron's frames it the same way: Dow up ~0.1%, S&P near unchanged, Nasdaq off ~0.3%. The split is the story — tech is the drag, the rest of the tape is steady. VIX sits near 14.5 (Yahoo Finance), so this is caution, not fear.

Pre-market movers — and why

• PayPal (PYPL) -15% — Bloomberg reported Stripe and Advent walked away from their ~$53bn takeover bid, ending months of talks.
• Marvell (MRVL) -8% — revenue $2.74bn and adjusted EPS $0.94 only just cleared the bar. A thin beat isn't enough at these AI multiples, and it is dragging other hardware names with it.
• Gap (GPS) +16% — an earnings beat plus Michael Francis named CEO of Old Navy.
• Context from Thursday: Nvidia rallied hard on revenue of $96.2bn (+106% y/y) and guidance that rebuilt confidence in the AI trade, while Salesforce had its best day since 2020 (CNBC, Investing.com). Today's Marvell wobble tests how deep that confidence runs.

Macro today

A light data day by volume, but not by weight. Per Trading Economics and Investing.com's US calendar:

• Chicago PMI (Aug), 09:45 ET — consensus ~57.6. A hold above 50 keeps the "no recession" read intact.
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment, final (Aug), 10:00 ET — consensus 51.0 vs 55.2 prior; the preliminary print already fell to 51.0. Watch the 1-year inflation expectation (~4.2-4.3%) and 5-year (~3.3%) — sticky expectations are exactly what a hawkish Fed leans on.
• BLS preliminary benchmark payrolls revision, 10:00 ET — Trading Economics shows consensus near -911k. A large downward revision would say the labour market was weaker than reported all along, and argues the other way, for cuts.
• Fed Chair Warsh, Jackson Hole, 10:00 ET. Two officials have already flagged inflation as "running too hot" and policy as "too accommodative"; Yahoo Finance notes roughly a third of bond traders now see a September hike, not a cut.
• Baker Hughes rig count 13:00 ET; CFTC positioning after the close.

No CPI, PCE, PPI, ISM, claims, retail sales, housing or GDP releases on today's US calendar.

Rates, dollar, commodities

• US 10Y ~4.70%, up ~3bp on the session (Trading Economics)
• DXY ~99.18, a shade firmer (Investing.com)
• Brent ~$87.6-87.9, -0.8%; WTI ~$82.6-82.9, around -1% (Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance)
• Gold ~$4,645-4,665/oz, broadly flat (Barron's, Yahoo Finance)

Overnight global

Asia closed split: Nikkei and Hang Seng edged higher while Korea's Kospi lagged badly on a chip drag, the same AI-hardware nerves now showing in Nasdaq futures. Europe is trading modestly firmer (Investing.com index board).

What to watch at the open

The first 30 minutes are likely to be a holding pattern; the real repricing comes at 10:00 ET when Warsh speaks and the Michigan and payrolls-revision numbers land in the same minute. Watch whether the 10Y breaks decisively above 4.70% — that is the tell for whether the hawkish camp is winning. And watch whether the Marvell selling stays contained to hardware or spreads into the broader AI complex that carried this rally.

As of 09:35 ET, 28 August 2026. Figures as reported by: Yahoo Finance, Barron's, Trading Economics, Investing.com, CNBC. Not MarketChacha real-time exchange data. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.