Overnight tone is risk-on after Fed Governor Christopher Waller pushed back on a September rate hike, but the single biggest swing factor for India's open is Brent at roughly $96 a barrel — up about 9% this week on Strait of Hormuz shipping fears.

US: prior close

• Dow Jones 53,685.73, +1.18%; S&P 500 7,746.52, +1.06% (levels as reported by Trading Economics).
• Nasdaq Composite +1.4% (Business Standard). Best day in about a month.
• Why: Waller said he is willing to support holding the policy rate steady if inflation keeps easing. Odds of a September hike fell to roughly 50% from about 70% earlier in the week. Software and financials led — Oracle +5.7%, Meta +3%, Microsoft +2.7%, Goldman Sachs +3.3%.

Asia now

• Nikkei 225 +0.68%, Kospi +1.01% (Business Standard live). Yen strength on BOJ hike bets is capping Japanese exporters.
• Shanghai Composite closed Thursday at 3,958.19, +0.43%, helped by China's private composite PMI rising to 52.1 in August (Trading Economics).
• Hang Seng: n/a — not verified at time of writing.

Europe: Thursday close

• DAX 26,003, +0.63% — snapped a three-day slide on autos, software and financials (VW +3.3%, SAP +2.5%).
• FTSE 100 10,832, +0.70% — miners and telecoms led as bond markets stabilised. Euro Stoxx 50: n/a. (Trading Economics)

India lead

GIFT Nifty at 24,019, up 52 points (Business Standard), pointing to a mildly positive Nifty open. Nifty 50 closed Wednesday at 23,873.45 (-0.17%) and Sensex at 76,152.86 (-417.49 pts, -0.55%) — a fourth straight losing session, with IT and autos the drags and private banks and realty the support.

Commodities, currency, rates

• Brent $96.11, +0.60%, on track for a ~9% weekly gain; only six commodity vessels transited Hormuz on Wednesday versus a 10-day average of nearly 13. WTI was around $91.58 on Wednesday (Yahoo Finance).
• Gold $4,470.44/oz, -0.07%.
• USD/INR 94.35, rupee firmer, supported by $136.38 bn mobilised via special foreign-currency schemes. DXY 98.98, near a two-week low.
• US 10Y 4.77%, off Tuesday's 4.81% — the highest since October 2023. (Trading Economics)

Data due today

• US August non-farm payrolls, 6:00 pm IST — consensus +56K vs -23K prior; unemployment 4.1% steady; average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m, +3.0% y/y (InvestingLive). This is the only major scheduled US print today.
• India: no major macro release scheduled. August HSBC composite PMI (54.3) landed Wednesday; RBI's weekly statistical supplement, which carries forex reserves, is the routine Friday evening item.
• FOMC decision: September 15-16, announcement 16 September.
• What it means: a hot payroll number revives the hike trade, lifts the 10Y and DXY, and pressures Indian IT and rate-sensitive names; a soft print extends the risk-on move and supports the rupee.

Also on the tape

• FPIs put $3.1 bn into Indian equities last month — the biggest monthly inflow in nearly two years.
• Indian banks mobilised over $60 bn under the RBI's forex swap scheme.
• Qualiance International IPO opens (₹45.11 crore); Priority Jewels and ESDS Software Solution list today.

What it means for the India open

Cues are net positive: a dovish Waller, a softer dollar and a firm rupee argue for a bounce after four down sessions, and GIFT Nifty agrees. But $96 Brent is a direct hit to India's import bill and to OMC, paint, aviation and tyre margins, so any rally is likely to be led by banks and financials rather than be broad-based. Expect positioning to go quiet into the 6:00 pm payrolls print.

As of 8:55 AM IST, 4 September 2026. Sources: Business Standard, Trading Economics, Trading Economics (Brent), Business Standard (close), InvestingLive, Yahoo Finance. All prices as reported by these sources, not live exchange data. Automated pre-market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.