Futures were flat-to-lower before the bell, but the July PCE report landed close enough to expectations to keep the September rate debate open — and everything else today is a placeholder until Nvidia reports tonight. Oil sliding on Middle East diplomacy hopes is quietly doing the heavy lifting for bonds.

Futures into the open

• S&P 500 futures 7,687.00, -0.07%; Nasdaq-100 futures 29,215.50, -0.21%; Dow futures 53,701.00, +0.10% (Yahoo Finance).
• Investing.com reported the cash indices turning higher in early trade — S&P 500 +0.32% at 7,677.28, Nasdaq Composite +0.66%, Dow +0.30%.

Movers and the why

• Intuit -11.8% — Q4 beat, but fiscal-2027 guidance fell well short (Investing.com).
• Nvidia +2.2% ahead of its own print; AMD +4.9% and Super Micro +9.4% riding the same AI bid.
• Semtech +5.5% on record Q2, data-centre revenue $100m (+91% y/y). SolarEdge +5.6% on a UBS upgrade after an FCC ruling touching more than half the US inverter market.
• Boston Scientific -3.2% on a cybersecurity incident; GoDaddy -3.5% on a Wells Fargo downgrade; nCino -4.9% on a large earnings miss.

Earnings tonight

Nvidia reports after the close (~4:20pm ET). Consensus is $91.9bn revenue and $2.08 EPS, with the real test being Q3 guidance around $104bn (Investing.com). Also due: Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Okta, Synopsys, Williams-Sonoma, Abercrombie & Fitch.

Macro — a heavy calendar, already out

Per Trading Economics, everything below printed at 8:30am ET:

• Core PCE (Jul) +0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y — in line, unchanged from June. The Fed's preferred gauge is not getting worse, but it is not falling either.
• Headline PCE +0.2% m/m, 3.7% y/y vs 3.6% expected — a small upside miss.
• Q2 GDP, 2nd estimate 1.5% (in line), down from 2.1% in Q1.
• Durable goods orders (Jul) +1.1% vs +0.5% expected — the day's clearest beat.
• Personal income +0.4% (vs +0.2%), spending +0.2% (vs +0.1%), saving rate 3.0%.
• Earlier: MBA mortgage applications -1.0%, 30-year rate 6.78%.
• Still ahead: EIA crude inventories (10:30am ET), 17-week bill and 5-year note auction (1:00pm ET).

Rates, dollar, commodities

• US 10Y ~4.65%, barely changed after dropping nearly 10bp yesterday as falling oil eased inflation worries (Trading Economics). 30Y ~5.17%.
• DXY 99.12, +0.20% (Trading Economics).
• WTI ~$80.21, -2.6%; Brent ~$86.65, -1.1% — hopes of Middle East diplomatic progress. Gold ~$4,676, -0.4%.

Overnight global

Asia closed firm — Nikkei 225 +0.63%, Hang Seng +0.83%, Shanghai Composite +0.60%. Europe is roughly flat: STOXX 600 +0.09%, DAX +0.03%, CAC 40 +0.41%, FTSE 100 -0.11% (Trading Economics).

What to watch at the open

Watch whether the early bid holds into the afternoon or fades ahead of Nvidia — positioning into that print, not the PCE number, is what is likely driving intraday tape. Watch the 10Y around 4.65%: if oil keeps sliding and yields follow, that is the friendlier backdrop for the AI complex. And watch breadth — a rally carried only by AMD, SMCI and Nvidia is a narrow one.

As of 09:45 ET, 26 August 2026. Sources: Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, Trading Economics, CNBC, Motley Fool. Figures are as reported by those sources, not live exchange data. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.