The 10-year Treasury yield is knocking on 5% again two days after the Fed's rate hike — yet US futures point higher, with AI-linked megacaps doing the lifting into a quadruple-witching session.

Futures now

Investing.com reports Dow futures at 51,956 (+0.34%), S&P 500 futures at 7,669 (+0.41%) and Nasdaq-100 futures at 29,666 (+0.74%). The driver is the tension between rates and tech: Trading Economics reports the US 10-year at 4.98%, up ~5bp and 33bp higher on the month, after the FOMC lifted the fed funds target to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote on Wednesday. Per Charles Schwab, 16 of 19 members pencilled in at least one more hike this year. Bonds are pricing a hawkish Fed; equity futures are pricing AI earnings.

Pre-market movers

• Alphabet (GOOGL) +2.2% — the standout. Evercore ISI raised its target to $450 (from $420) and Tigress Financial to $485 (from $415), both citing Gemini share gains and cloud momentum.
• Netflix (NFLX) down 2–3% — Wells Fargo cut it to Underweight, target $57 from $80, flagging weakening engagement and rising content costs. CNBC notes it is the stock's first sell rating.
• Meta (META) +1.5%, Intel (INTC) +0.6%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.5%; Nvidia (NVDA) flat. More on movers.

Earnings

A quiet Friday between reporting seasons — no mega-cap results scheduled, so today's single-stock moves are analyst- and flow-driven rather than earnings-driven.

Macro today

Light but not empty; full calendar:

• 9:15 ET — Industrial Production (Aug): consensus +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% prior (Investing.com). A beat says the goods economy is absorbing tighter policy; a miss feeds the stagflation worry that $100 oil plus a hiking Fed creates. Capacity utilisation (last 76.3%, Trading Economics) and manufacturing production land with it.
• 9:30 ET — Fed's Bowman and 11:45 ET — Fed's Schmid: first post-decision commentary, and a read on how firmly they back the dot plot.
• 10:00 ET — Conference Board Leading Index (Aug); 13:00 ET — Baker Hughes rig count, which matters more than usual with crude above $100.

No CPI, PPI, PCE, payrolls, claims, ISM, retail sales or housing data today — those resume next week.

Rates, dollar & commodities

Trading Economics reports the 10-year at 4.98%, dollar index 100.45 (+0.20%), WTI $102.25 (+0.33%), Brent $103.75 (-1.02%) and gold $4,368.56 (+0.63%). Triple-digit oil alongside a hiking Fed is the core reason long yields will not fall — and why gold keeps bidding despite a firmer dollar.

Overnight global

Asia was the positive: Trading Economics reports the Nikkei +1.91% and Hang Seng +0.12%. Europe is the drag, with the DAX -1.12% and FTSE 100 -1.13% in live trade. The risk appetite arriving into the US open is imported from Asian tech, not from Europe.

What to watch at the open

Today is quadruple witching — the quarterly expiry of index futures, index options, stock futures and stock options — which inflates volume and can distort closing prices, so treat late-session moves with extra caution. Watch whether the 10-year actually breaks 5%: that level has capped it twice this month, and a clean break would test the market's willingness to keep paying up for AI growth.

As of 9:20 AM ET, 18 September 2026. Sources: Investing.com, Trading Economics, CNBC, Charles Schwab, Investing.com Economic Calendar. Figures are as reported by these sources, not live exchange quotes. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.