US futures are steadying after a bruising Tuesday, but the story has shifted from growth to oil and the Fed's next move. The US military struck five Iranian tankers on Tuesday, sinking one, after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US Navy warship, per TheStreet — pushing Brent above $100 and flipping rate expectations from cuts to a possible hike.

Futures now

• S&P 500 futures 7,683.75, +0.04% · Dow futures 52,800, -0.06% · Nasdaq-100 futures 29,579.75, +0.14% (Yahoo Finance, pre-market)
• The Dow fell more than 600 points Tuesday. Futures are flat, not relieved — the shock is being absorbed, not dismissed.

Pre-market movers

• Meta (META) +4.9% after launching an AI personal agent
• nCino (NCNO) +12.5% on strong earnings and AI partnerships
• Signet Jewelers (SIG) +10% on a beat
• Casey's General Stores (CASY) -12.2% on disappointing sales
• Apple (AAPL) in focus — today's iPhone event is the first fronted by new CEO John Ternus, with a foldable iPhone and the iPhone 18 line expected (CBS News, Fortune)

Reporting today: Chewy (CHWY) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO).

Macro today — the full calendar

A genuinely light data day, but not an empty one (times ET, Trading Economics):

• 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (wk Sep 4): +0.8% consensus vs -2.7% prior; 30-yr rate seen 6.79% vs 6.85%. A miss shows the yield spike biting housing.
• 8:15 ADP weekly employment change: 10K consensus vs 12K prior — a soft print complicates any hawkish turn.
• 8:55 Redbook retail sales YoY: 9.6% consensus — watch for any dent from pump prices.
• 11:30 17-week bill auction (3.855% consensus). 13:00 10-year Note auction, ~4.683% consensus — the day's real event. Weak demand with 10s already at 4.81% would pressure equities into the close.
• 16:30 API crude stocks: -2.6M consensus. Note the EIA weekly petroleum report is pushed to Thursday by Monday's Labor Day holiday.
• No Fed speakers, no FOMC event scheduled today. The heavy data is later: PPI and jobless claims Thursday (PPI +0.0% m/m, core +0.2%, claims 206K), CPI Friday (3.4% headline, 2.5% core y/y) plus Michigan sentiment at 51.7.

Rates, dollar, commodities

• US 10Y 4.81%, +2bp — its highest since October 2023; 2Y 4.43%, 30Y 5.25% (Trading Economics)
• DXY ~98.77, -0.10% — notably the dollar is not rallying on higher yields
• Brent $100.80, +2.96% · WTI $95.39, +2.54% · Gold $4,447.40, +0.19% · Silver $67.04 (TheStreet)
• Traders now price a 60% chance of a 25bp rate hike this month, per CME Group data cited by Yahoo Finance — a striking reversal.

Overnight global

• Nikkei 225 closed 65,143, -0.19%, giving up gains as the yen hit a near seven-month high
• DAX 25,610, -1.53%, with energy-intensive industrials and banks worst hit; Rheinmetall -3%. Trading Economics ties the move to escalation over the Strait of Hormuz.

What to watch at the open

The tell is whether equities hold flat while Brent sits above $100 — energy strength masking broad weakness would be a thinner tape than the index suggests. The 1pm 10-year auction is the pivot: a soft tail with yields at 4.81% pressures duration-sensitive tech into the close.

As of 9:26 AM ET, September 9, 2026. Sources: Yahoo Finance, TheStreet, Trading Economics, CBS News, Fortune. All prices and levels are as reported by those sources, not live exchange data. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.