ranjeet_singh
2 months ago·46 views
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Why did On Holding (ONON) crash ~20% today?

On Holding decoded

On Holding (NYSE: ONON) is having its worst day as a public company — the stock is down about 20% to roughly $30.97, an ~$7.80 drop that's its steepest single-day fall since the 2021 IPO and a two-year low, per Yahoo Finance and Motley Fool.

Here's the twist: this wasn't a profit problem. Q2 adjusted EPS actually beat at CHF 0.35 (vs. CHF 0.34 expected), gross margin jumped 390 bps to a fat 65.4%, and adjusted EBITDA margin climbed to 19.8%. What spooked the market was the top line: net sales of CHF 850.3M (~$1.05B), up 21.6% in constant currency but short of the ~CHF 880M street estimate — the first real growth wobble from a company that had made beating look routine.

The crack is in wholesale. Wholesale revenue rose just 4.8% (12.7% constant-currency), a sharp step down from +25.1% cc in Q1. On says that's on purpose — it's throttling wholesale to protect premium pricing and dodge the discounting that's bruised peers — and it leaned on direct-to-consumer instead, which grew 34.3% cc to a record 45.7% of sales. But its biggest region, the Americas (over half of sales), grew only about 13% cc, down from 17% in Q1. Deliberate or not, "our largest market is decelerating" is exactly what a stock priced for perfection can't say. Management then trimmed full-year constant-currency growth guidance to the low-20s%, from "at least 23%."

The ripple: the whole premium-running cohort slid with it. Deckers (DECK), which owns HOKA, already fell ~6% last month on its own "beat but slowing" print. On's number hardens the worry that US full-price demand for $150+ performance shoes is cooling across the category — not just at one brand.

What flips it: On is betting DTC "strongly outperforms" wholesale in H2 and nudged its gross-margin guide up to 65%. Watch the Q3 report — if DTC reaccelerates and margins hold, today looks like a strategy tax, not a top. The first level to watch: whether ONON can hold today's ~$30.11 two-year low; lose that and the "premium growth story" is on the ropes.

As of ~3:00 PM ET, Aug 11, 2026. Sources: Motley Fool, Yahoo Finance. For discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.

This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investing involves significant risks. I am not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Readers should consult their own financial advisor and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

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