Wall Street's tech-led surge sets a firm global backdrop — the Nasdaq jumped 2.13% and Amazon topped a $3-trillion valuation overnight — but Asia is not following, and the single biggest driver for India's open is caution ahead of tomorrow's RBI decision, with GIFT Nifty pointing to a flat-to-tepid start.

US: Record close, Big Tech leads

Wall Street rallied Monday as megacap tech powered ahead and oil slid. Per Business Standard, the Dow rose 1.32% (record close near 53,178), the S&P 500 gained 1.48% (~7,600) and the Nasdaq jumped 2.13% (~25,914). Amazon soared ~4.6% to cross a $3-trillion market cap for the first time (CNBC).

Asia now: mixed, not tracking Wall Street

Asia failed to follow the tech rally as AI-trade jitters and US–Iran tension weighed. As of ~8:35 AM IST, Japan's Nikkei 225 was down ~0.82% and Korea's Kospi ~0.15% lower, while Australia's ASX rose ~1.14% (Business Standard). Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed Monday near 26,009; China's Shanghai Composite ended Monday at ~3,810 (SCMP, Trading Economics).

India lead: flat open signalled

GIFT Nifty was quoted around 24,644 (flat), signalling a tepid open with a mild negative bias after the Nifty's four-day winning streak to a five-month high, per Business Standard. Investors are largely on the sidelines awaiting the RBI.

Commodities, currency, yields

Oil steadied after Trump called new talks Iran's "last chance": Brent near $84.45, up ~0.8% (Business Standard), with WTI firmer around $80 after Monday's ~5% slide. Gold futures were ~0.56% higher. The rupee is soft near 95.6/$, the dollar index near 100.9 and the US 10-year yield around 4.7% — its highest in months — as firm yields support the greenback (VT Markets).

Sentiment: cautiously risk-on, geopolitics the swing factor

Global tone is risk-on on Wall Street's tech strength, but tempered by US–Iran headlines and firm oil/US yields. Net: constructive but selective.

Data & events to watch

• India — RBI MPC, Wed Aug 5, 10 AM: Governor Malhotra expected to hold the repo at 5.25% for a fourth straight meeting (Goodreturns/Business Standard poll). A surprise or hawkish inflation tone would hit rate-sensitives (banks, autos, realty); a dovish hold could lift them.
• India — PMI: July manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.5, a near five-year low (Business Standard); S&P Global Services PMI is due this week.
• US today — Trade Balance (Jun, est −$76.5B vs −$77.6B) and Factory Orders (Jun, est −0.8% vs −1.3%). Softer US data would ease yields/dollar and help the rupee and FII flows; JOLTS & ISM Services (Aug 5) and payrolls (Fri) set the Fed-cut tone.

Movers & headlines

A heavy Q1 earnings day in India: Bharti Airtel, ONGC, Marico, Pidilite, Godrej Properties, Kalyan Jewellers, NHPC, MCX, Nykaa (FSN), UNO Minda and Emami report today — expect stock-specific swings. Paytm hit a 4-year high and Urban Company jumped ~18% Monday despite a Q1 loss; GAIL fell ~5%. IPO watch: Aegeus Technologies opens; MV Electrosystems is heavily subscribed.

What it means for the India open

Expect a broadly flat open with a positive IT tilt — the Nasdaq's surge and Monday's 3%+ IT rally are tailwinds — offset by soft Asia, a weak rupee and firm oil. With the RBI verdict a day away, index moves may stay rangebound while earnings drive single stocks. Watch Airtel, ONGC and rate-sensitive banks/autos into Wednesday.

As of 8:45 AM IST, 4 Aug 2026. Sources: Business Standard, CNBC, SCMP, Goodreturns, VT Markets. Automated pre-market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.