US stock futures point lower into a tense open, as a fresh slide in chip stocks and a 10-year Treasury yield that just pierced 5% set a defensive tone hours before the Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting that markets expect to end in a rare rate hike.

Futures now

S&P 500 futures were down about 0.5%, Nasdaq-100 futures off roughly 1.2%, and Dow futures lower by around 0.3% (~180 points), as reported by CNBC and Investing.com. The single biggest driver is the jump in yields: the 10-year note topped 5% Monday — a 19-year intraday high near 5.01% before easing to about 4.96% — as surging oil revived inflation worries (Trading Economics, Bloomberg).

Pre-market movers

• Semiconductors led the drop. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 5.9% Monday, with Nvidia down 3.4% (trading near $211 pre-market) and Intel off 5.6% (Bloomberg, Investing.com).
• Intuit tumbled roughly 11.8% pre-market after fiscal-2027 guidance came in well below expectations.
• Semtech jumped about 4.7% on record fiscal-Q2 results that beat on both revenue and EPS (Investing.com).

Earnings & calendar

The earnings docket is light today; the week's marquee report is Nvidia, after Wednesday's close, with the options market implying a double-digit move (Benzinga).

Macro today

Two 8:30 a.m. ET releases headline before the Fed convenes:

• Retail Sales (Aug) — consensus around +0.3% MoM versus a revised +0.6% in July; a hot print would harden the case for tighter policy (Action Economics / Haver).
• Empire State Manufacturing (Sept) — prior reading 20.6, a four-year high; watch the prices-paid subindex for pipeline inflation (NY Fed).
• Import / Export Prices (Aug) are also due mid-month; nonfuel import prices ran +4.5% y/y in July (BLS).

Crucially, the FOMC begins its two-day meeting today. Markets price roughly an 89% chance of a 25 bps hike Wednesday — what would be the first increase since 2023 (Trading Economics).

Rates, dollar & commodities

The 10-year yield sits near 4.96% after topping 5%. Oil stayed elevated — WTI ~$102.8 (+1.4%) and Brent ~$107.5 — keeping upward pressure on inflation, while gold hovered near $4,300/oz after three losing weeks, weighed by higher real yields (Trading Economics, Convex). The dollar held firm alongside the yield spike.

Overnight global context

Asia was mixed-to-softer: Japan's Nikkei 225 closed roughly flat near 63,398 (-0.15%), and China was set to report August activity data (Yahoo Finance, InvestingLive). The chip-led risk-off mood carried into Europe's open.

What to watch at the open

Watch whether the 10-year yield holds above 5% — a sustained break tends to pressure the highest-valued tech and growth names hardest, which is exactly where this selloff began. The 8:30 retail-sales and Empire State prints land before the bell and could swing rate-hike expectations into Wednesday's decision. And keep an eye on whether semiconductors stabilize or extend Monday's slide, since they are setting the market's risk appetite right now.

As of 3:56 AM ET, Sep 15 ET. Sources: Trading Economics, CNBC, Investing.com, NY Fed, BLS, Yahoo Finance. Automated US market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.