Asia is firmly risk-on after the Bank of Japan delivered the hike everyone expected — 25bps to 1.25%, its highest in roughly three decades, on a split 7–2 vote — but the bigger prize for India is that US Treasury yields have backed off their 2007 highs, letting Wall Street rebound hard overnight.

US prior close (Thursday)

• Dow 51,779.85 (+0.62%) · S&P 500 7,637.72 (+1.14%) · Nasdaq 26,418.30 (+1.69%), per TheStreet.
• Why: yields retreating from their highest since 2007 mattered more than Wednesday's Fed hike to 3.75–4.00%. Tech led (+2.25%); only communication services and financials fell.

Asia right now

Nikkei 225 65,274 (+1.77%), with the yen softer at 156.9 per dollar rather than stronger — a telegraphed BOJ move read as relief. Kospi 6,855.60 (+2.09%) · Hang Seng 24,761 (+0.64%) · Shanghai 3,915 (+1.03%).

Europe (Thursday close)

DAX 25,717 (+0.70%) · FTSE 100 10,816 (+1.19%) · Euro Stoxx 50 6,319 (+0.75%), per Trading Economics. The Bank of England held at 3.75%, with 3 of 9 voting to hike.

India lead

GIFT Nifty 23,327.5, down 32.5 points (-0.14%) at 8:34 am IST — a flat-to-marginally-soft open against Thursday's Nifty 50 close of 23,270.60 (+0.23%). Sensex ended at 74,315.

Commodities, currency and rates

Brent $104.03 (-0.76%) · WTI $101.41 (-0.49%) — softer, but still India's biggest imported-inflation risk. Gold $4,342/oz (+0.02%) · USD/INR 95.82 · Dollar index 100.26 · US 10-year 4.95%.

Global sentiment

Risk-on, but on borrowed time: the relief is about yields easing, not central banks turning dovish. The Fed has just hiked, the BOJ has followed, and the BoE carries three hawkish dissents.

Economic data due today

• India (~5:00 pm IST): RBI weekly forex reserves (consensus $785.71B), bank loan growth (18.3% prior), deposit growth (14.7% prior), M3 (14.2% prior). That credit-deposit gap keeps pressure on bank funding costs — pointed, with lenders already dragging the index.
• US: industrial production (f/c +0.3% vs +0.2%), capacity utilisation (f/c 76.4%), Fed Bowman speech. Hot prints revive the second-hike trade, lift yields and pressure the rupee; a miss does the reverse.
• Global: UK retail sales (f/c -0.2% MoM), euro-area current account (f/c €36.0B), an ECB Lagarde speech, China FDI (f/c -5.8%).
• Already out overnight: US jobless claims 196K vs 208K expected and Philadelphia Fed 37.8 vs 30.5 — both beats, and strong data is what keeps yields sticky. Housing starts missed at 1.275M. Full economic calendar.

Headlines and stock-specific items

• The NSE IPO is in day two of subscription (17–21 September): 12.64 crore shares at Rs 1,700–1,785 — the week's domestic flow event.
• Thursday: pharma, realty and media each added over 1% while HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank dragged; India VIX fell 6.7%. Today's movers.
• AI-capex read-through for Indian IT and power: Generac jumped 22% on an Amazon data-centre supply deal; Goldman Sachs eased about 1% on FICC softness.

What it means for the India open today

Expect a flat start with a mild upward bias: global cues are supportive, yet GIFT Nifty refuses to price Asia's rally, which says domestic positioning stays cautious below the 23,418 resistance zone. Banks are the swing factor — without them turning, the Nifty struggles to reclaim its 8-EMA. Crude under $105 and a steady rupee are the quiet positives.

As of 8:55 am IST, 18 September 2026. Sources: TheStreet, Trading Economics, Business Standard, Investing.com, NiftyTrader, 5paisa, InvestingLive. Automated pre-market brief for discussion and education only — not investment advice. Verify before acting.